upcoming
Apers for Senior Living
Senior living underwriting for the operating business, not just the real estate.
Apers is the AI system for senior housing underwriting — modeling acuity mix, staffing ratios, and census management by care level, because the margins live in the operations.
Three businesses under one roof
You're evaluating a 150-unit continuing care community — 80 independent living units, 50 assisted living units, and 20 memory care units. Each acuity level has different revenue (IL at $4,000/month, AL at $6,500, MC at $9,000), different staffing ratios (IL 0.3 FTE/unit, AL 0.8, MC 1.2), different turnover rates, and different margin profiles. This isn't one property — it's three businesses under one roof, and the underwriting needs to reflect that.
In senior living, labor is 55-65% of operating expenses. The staffing model — nurse-to-resident ratios by acuity level, shift scheduling, agency usage, wage rate assumptions — determines the property's margin more than any revenue assumption. A 5% increase in agency staffing usage can erase the operating margin on your memory care wing. But most models treat labor as a flat $/unit expense, not a staffing model.
The structure decision — operating (RIDEA) vs. triple-net lease — fundamentally changes the underwriting. Under RIDEA, you're underwriting an operating business with all its volatility. Under NNN, you're underwriting a lease with a tenant whose credit depends on that same operating business. The models are completely different, but the diligence is the same: you need to understand the operations either way.
Senior living is the most operationally complex asset class in CRE. The investors who succeed are the ones who underwrite the operating business — staffing, acuity mix, census management, Medicaid/Medicare reimbursement — not just the real estate. Apers models senior living as an operating business, because that's what it is.
What changes with Apers
IL, AL, memory care — each modeled separately
Revenue, expenses, staffing, and turnover modeled by acuity level. The margin on independent living is nothing like the margin on memory care. Apers keeps them separate because the economics demand it.
The expense line that makes or breaks the deal
Staffing by shift, by acuity level, by position. Nurse-to-resident ratios. Agency usage assumptions. Wage rate sensitivity. The staffing model drives 60% of operating expenses — Apers models it as a staffing plan, not a flat line item.
Two structures, one diligence
RIDEA operating model with full P&L volatility and management fee structures. NNN model with rent coverage analysis and tenant credit underwriting. Both structures available for the same property — compare them side by side.
Move-in, move-out, and everything between
Census management modeling: move-in pace, length of stay by acuity, turnover rate, and the revenue impact of vacant units during turnover. Senior living vacancy isn't a percentage — it's a flow model.
Operating statements with acuity detail
Upload operating statements — Apers extracts revenue by acuity level, departmental expenses, staffing costs, and census data. The model starts from the operator's actual reporting, not pro forma assumptions.
A deal, start to finish
A 150-unit CCRC — 80 independent living, 50 assisted living, 20 memory care. RIDEA structure. Current operator running at 88% census with high agency staffing. $62M acquisition.
Upload operating data
Operating statements, census report, and staffing schedules. Apers extracts revenue by acuity level, departmental expenses, staffing costs by position and shift, and census trends — building the operating model from the operator's actual data.
Acuity-level model built
Revenue, expenses, and staffing modeled independently for IL, AL, and MC. Independent living at 92% census, $4,000/month, 38% operating margin. Assisted living at 86% census, $6,500/month, 28% margin. Memory care at 85% census, $9,000/month, 22% margin with high staffing costs.
Staffing optimization modeled
Current state: 18% agency staffing, $42/hour blended agency rate vs. $28/hour permanent staff. Target: reduce agency to 8% over 12 months. Hire 14 permanent FTEs, invest in CNA training. The model shows the cost of the transition and the margin improvement timeline.
Census improvement projected
Move-in pace acceleration: 4 move-ins/month to 6 move-ins/month through improved marketing and referral partnerships. Length-of-stay projections by acuity. Stabilized census target: IL 95%, AL 92%, MC 90%. Timeline to stabilization: 18 months.
IC-ready output
Excel model with acuity-level P&L, staffing model with agency reduction timeline, census projections, RIDEA vs NNN comparison side-by-side, and return analysis under both structures.
Models built for senior living
Specialized models for senior housing — acuity-based economics, staffing models, and the operating complexity these deals require.
Senior Housing / Assisted Living Model
Specialized model with service fees, acuity mix (IL/AL/MC), staffing costs, occupancy ramp, and operating margins by acuity level.
Ground-Up Development Pro Forma
Development model for ground-up senior living — construction, phased opening by acuity level, census ramp to stabilization.
Multi-Class Equity Waterfall
Distribution waterfall for complex senior living capital structures with multiple investor classes and preferred returns.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Apers model different acuity levels independently?
Yes. Apers models independent living, assisted living, and memory care as separate revenue and expense streams within one property model. Each acuity level has its own monthly rate, staffing ratio, turnover rate, and margin profile — because a 150-unit CCRC is three businesses under one roof.
How does Apers handle staffing and labor cost modeling?
Apers models labor as a staffing plan, not a flat $/unit expense. Nurse-to-resident ratios by acuity level, shift scheduling, wage rate assumptions, and agency usage percentages all feed into the operating cost projection. A 5% swing in agency staffing usage shows its real margin impact.
Can Apers model both RIDEA and triple-net senior living structures?
Yes. Under RIDEA, Apers models the full operating business with census management, acuity migration, and staffing volatility. Under NNN, the model focuses on lease-level analysis with rent coverage ratios and operator credit assessment. The structure choice fundamentally changes the underwriting, and Apers handles both.
Does Apers account for acuity migration and census management?
Yes. Apers models the transition of residents from independent living to assisted living to memory care — each move changes the revenue per unit and the staffing requirement. The model projects census by acuity level over the hold period based on configurable migration and turnover assumptions.