MODEL DESIGN
How to Build an Office Lease Rollover Pocket Model
Overview
ARTICLE IN PROGRESS
We're writing a deep engineering essay on AQ-200. How we built it, the design choices behind it, and how to use it. The model itself is live and available today.
AQ-200 is the office screener that doesn't pretend to model each lease. Rollover is treated as an average annual percentage of square footage with a blended TI/LC assumption. That's wrong for IC, right for first-look, and the explicit design intent of a triage tool that has to clear a stack of office teasers before lunch.
Planned Sections
When the full piece is published, it will cover:
- The triage version: an office screener that doesn't pretend to model each lease.
- Design choice: average annual rollover % vs lease-by-lease schedule.
- Design choice: blended TI/LC assumption vs per-tenant economics.
- Why the pocket model is wrong for IC and right for first-look.
- What the institutional model (AQ-201) adds when you need it.
- How to use the pocket to filter office teasers.
For an example of the engineering-essay format this article will follow, see how we engineered AQ-141, the Multifamily Opportunistic Pro Forma Model.
About the Model
AQ-200 is a Pocket-tier office acquisition screener. Average annual rollover, blended TI/LC, single capital stack. Built for REPE analysts and brokers triaging office acquisitions and core/value-add positioning calls.